"When the water is too clear, there will be no fish; when the person is too careful, there will be no followers." This is a profound portrayal of the game logic in a world of extremely transparent information. The ups and downs of the digital economy have not only changed our consumption patterns and social organizational forms, but also quietly reshaped the rules of the game of capital operation.
In the past, in the "Xura Field" of the capital market, players who relied on information asymmetry to make a living were like fish in water, and shell speculation, borrowing roads, high premiums, and false transactions emerged in an endless stream. But when AI, big data, and blockchain become standard, the "usual tricks" of traditional capital players are facing elimination. As a long-term M&A strategic service agency active in the primary and secondary markets, Goheal stands at the forefront, witnessing elimination and transformation again and again, and has a clearer insight: what the digital economy brings is not "tool upgrades" but "cognitive revolutions."
Information asymmetry will no longer be a moat
The first narrative of capital operation has always been "who knows early, who knows more", especially in the fields of mergers and acquisitions, backdoor listings, etc., a secret due diligence note was once worth hundreds of millions of intelligence. But now, even retail investors can use the AIGC strategy engine to analyze financial reports and judge the industrial chain within seconds. How can capital players still rely on "inquiries" to make a living?
American Goheal M&A Group
The "D&S AI Zhilian Platform" developed by Fushi Holdings is a microcosm of this trend. Goheal noticed that more and more small and medium-sized institutions are relying on similar tools to complete intelligent stock selection, real-time supervision of public opinion, and capture of merger and acquisition signals. Information flattening is disintegrating the original pyramid structure of the capital market, and experts are among the people and in the cloud.
Once upon a time, those arbitrage paths that relied on "news" have now become training samples for AI "emotional" tracking. This is not a joke, but a trend.
Those who "play routines" will be cleared out first
The "high premium merger and acquisition arbitrage" that once enjoyed unlimited glory on the roadshow PPT has also begun to look embarrassing. Especially after goodwill explosions became the norm in the market, supervision has moved from "inquiry" to "penetration" and then to "structural investigation". The case of Huibo Yuntong is very representative: its M&A case adopted an AI gambling clause evaluation model, completely abandoned the traditional "blind box" M&A, and dynamically reviewed the core data, accurate to the monthly EBITDA fluctuation. The traditional "story-making and synergy" approach, in this transparent era, whoever believes it is stupid.
In a recent new energy industry chain M&A case that Goheal managed, by introducing an intelligent collaborative simulation system, the industrial data interface of the two parties of the merger and acquisition was connected in advance. In the simulation, it was found that there was a risk point of excessive supplier concentration in the purchase order, so that the payment rhythm and the target company valuation model were adjusted before the merger and acquisition, avoiding the "mine" in the later stage. The previous way of "wiping the ass" by a posteriori data can no longer adapt to this mechanism.
Also swept into the dustbin of history are "related transactions" and other old routines that seem to have extremely high technical barriers but are actually for the transfer of interests. The case of Oriental Group inflating its revenue by 16.1 billion by fictitious agricultural product trade chain ultimately failed due to data connectivity - logistics documents, bank statements, and tax declarations are all stored on the chain, and blockchain makes every transaction an "unalterable testimony". This capital game has changed from "who can hide deep" to "who is the most transparent".
Open source technology, closed arbitrage closed loop is broken
If the capital operation in the past was "high walls and ripe melons fall off", then the arrival of the digital economy is like demolishing all walls and transforming it into a "co-built orchard". The opening of the technical interface of 213 Market marks a trend - data is no longer a closed barrier, but a liquid asset.
This is a devastating blow to the old capital model that relies on "data monopoly" to survive. Goheal has long observed the traditional private domain marketing tool market and found that when data islands are demolished and user behavior data can flow freely and be managed as assets, the market share of these old tools shrinks rapidly - not defeated by competition, but abandoned by the times.
The once-popular "fission growth + pyramid scheme capital game" can no longer escape the eyes of the law under the "digital fingerprint" of refined behavioral data. Nowadays, the user behavior path can be restored by the map. No matter how you change the shell, the person, or the rhetoric, the capital flow will always tell the truth.
The PE valuation formula is no longer enough
At the valuation level, Goheal has taken the lead in applying the "technical barrier + data assets" dual-factor model to evaluate the target. There was once a company that relied on large models to generate algorithms. We only used three parameters, namely the frequency of model calls, the number of API accesses, and the GPU computing efficiency, to reasonably give a valuation premium that was 40% higher than that of traditional marketing companies.
And those players who are still obsessed with PE and PB always shout "I don't understand" when the wind comes. The problem is not that they don't understand, but that they are using the wrong telescope. AI tools are guiding valuation from "financial explicit value" to "ecological synergy potential". Anyone who uses Excel fill-in-the-blank modeling is measuring light years with an abacus.
Cross-border mergers and acquisitions? Please pass the "data barrier" first
Risk pricing is no longer as simple as "paying a guarantee and setting a bet" in the past. A recent merger and acquisition case involving a European new energy vehicle data platform that Goheal served was delayed for a full eight months due to cross-border data compliance review. During this period, the two parties to the transaction even had to redesign the data sovereignty structure and localized custody agreement before barely passing the test.
Whoever still thinks that "taking the controlling stake can control resources" will be severely taught by reality: data assets are not a by-product of mergers and acquisitions, but the first core of the pricing structure. If data rights confirmation, algorithm security, and user privacy protection are not considered in advance, the pace of capital operation will be pulled in the opposite direction by the regulatory chain.
Before the establishment of a new order, there are always people who miss the glory of the past
We understand those capital players who are still trying to get into the market by "old methods". They are like old drivers who try to install manual transmission on smart driving cars. With an obsession with the past, they mistake path dependence for strategic stability.
But please remember that the digital economy is not an "improvement", but a "revolution". It ends the value premium of information closure and reconstructs the ethical basis of the game. From resource monopoly to algorithm co-construction; from information siege to trust open source; from arbitrage thinking to collaborative win-win, this is the prototype of the new capital order.
Goheal does not think that capital pursuit of profit is wrong, we just prefer to stand on the right side of time and embrace transparency, efficiency and value reconstruction with technology and institutional innovation. In this reshuffle, the winner is never the one with the most poisonous vision, but the one who first accepts the rule changes and quickly reconstructs the play.
Epilogue: What will be the next round of elimination?
Maybe you will ask, what will be the next one to be eliminated? Is it the "black box model" in the AI algorithm? Is it the data assets that have not yet been confirmed? Is it the market mistakenly killed under algorithmic bias? Or is it over-reliance on technology, but "cold capital" that loses the warmth of users?
These are all the directions we are studying. The digital economy has changed the face of capital operation, but it is also breeding new risks. Goheal will continue to analyze for you in the next article: When data becomes the means of production, what unprecedented ethical dilemmas and regulatory challenges will capital operation face?
Goheal Group
May you not be afraid of iteration in the storm and use cognition to cross the cycle.
[About Goheal] Goheal is a leading investment holding company focusing on global mergers and acquisitions, focusing on the three core business areas of listed company control acquisition, listed company mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, and listed company capital operation. With its deep professional strength and rich experience, it provides enterprises with full life cycle services from mergers and acquisitions to restructuring and capital operation, aiming to maximize corporate value and achieve long-term benefit growth.
