"When the mountains are high and the waters are deep, there seems to be no way out, but when the willows are dark and the flowers are bright, there is another village." This poem has a special meaning in the context of today's Sino-US economic friction. For Chinese listed companies, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States in the past 20 years has been like a highway - capital flow, technology flow, talent flow, and information flow, coming and going freely. But now, the situation has changed.
When "decoupling" has become a high-frequency word in the public opinion field, entrepreneurs can't help but ask: Is the "economic decoupling" between China and the United States a smokescreen for macroeconomic games, or a rope that really locks up corporate strategies? For those listed companies that have done "capital maneuvers" between China and the United States, the more critical question is: How should we go? Can we still go? Which road should we take to avoid being "locked in"?
Goheal has long been paying attention to the corporate operation window under the interaction of Chinese and American capital. He knows that this seemingly geopolitical confrontation is infiltrating into the underlying logic of capital operation of every listed company through subtle channels such as audit working papers, entity lists, data outbound, and investment in sensitive fields.
American Goheal M&A Group
Today, we will take you to "disassemble" this roadmap, find relative certainty in uncertainty, and find a path in the storm.
In 2024, the pace of accountability of the US side for Chinese concept stocks has significantly accelerated. From the "pre-delisting" list to the implementation of "substantial delisting", from the data security restriction bill to the implementation of the overseas investment declaration system, more and more Chinese companies are experiencing a round of capital "cold wave", and even the temperature of "anti-globalization" is beginning to approach the offices of A-share listed companies.
So, standing at today's point in time, how should a rational entrepreneur think? Goheal's advice is: Don't panic in a hurry, and first clarify the roadmap.
The first path: Actively "localize" and expand the internal circulation.
Some leading companies in sensitive sectors have begun to actively "inward" their overseas businesses - no longer using the North American market as the main engine of growth, but turning to alternative markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America and even China. At the same time, they are also more "conservative" in their capital paths: no longer seeking overseas listings, no longer relying on red chip structures, and no longer using US dollar funds as core financing channels, but returning to the A-share market and turning to the combination of "local valuation + local resources".
When assisting an intelligent equipment company to divest its US holding parent company structure, Goheal proposed the path of "local re-start": through the domestic asset repurchase + foreign LP exit, stabilize domestic control, and at the same time match the national fund "alternative capital", use local PE to take over overseas shareholders, and finally achieve a soft landing dismantling of the original "VIE structure".
This kind of operation sounds complicated, but behind it is a strategic "re-Sinicization". From industry to equity, from brand to cash flow, "discarding" is not easy, but sometimes, only by giving up can you gain.
The second path: leverage multilateral capital and find channels outside China and the United States.
Decoupling does not mean an island. Goheal observed that a new trend is emerging: more and more Chinese listed companies are trying to "layout in third countries" as an alternative channel - that is, by setting up regional headquarters and fund platforms in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa and other places, indirectly realizing foreign investment, industrial cooperation and even technology transformation.
For example, when facing the blockade of the US supply chain, a new energy company we serve decisively established a joint venture through Abu Dhabi, and shifted the export of battery modules that originally needed to be circulated through US customers to the Indian and Saudi markets. On the capital side, the US dollar PE platform was established through the Singapore family office, which not only avoided bilateral supervision between China and the United States, but also retained the flexibility of connecting with global capital.
From the perspective of capital structure, this kind of multilateral path breaks the "China-US dualism". Goheal has always emphasized that the construction of the "third pole platform" is not a geographical concept, but a strategic upgrade of the financial structure.
The third path: make good use of the M&A card and change the line to survive.
Under economic friction, many Chinese companies with layouts in the United States are forced to "reduce holdings", "withdraw" and "liquidate", which has precisely spawned a large number of "cross-border M&A" opportunities.
In particular, some Chinese listed companies have begun to "transfer" overseas assets back to China through mergers and acquisitions - for example, using domestic platforms to acquire overseas production lines, overseas technical teams, and even overseas market stock orders, thereby realizing the implementation of "business returning to China".
Goheal once participated in a typical case: a Hong Kong-listed company acquired an AI chip team in the United States. Due to export control and data compliance risks, it was forced to split its assets, and then an A-share company "absorbed" it back to China through an M&A fund. Although the process was tortuous, it saved the core assets for both parties and enabled China to complete technology repatriation and localization substitution.
This is the so-called "changing line to survive" - the capital path cannot be avoided, but it can change lanes, turn corners, and change cars. As long as the underlying strategy is clear, capital means will eventually be used by me.
Among all the paths, Goheal values the most: cognitive upgrade and capital reconstruction.
The biggest challenge for entrepreneurs in the Sino-US game is not that a certain path is blocked, but that the inertia of thinking fails. In the past, it was believed that it was most convenient to get US dollars, that IPOs in the United States were the most valuable, that joint ventures with foreigners were the most "foreign", and that binding with Sequoia and Hillhouse was the most secure... Now, these logics have failed one by one.
The problem is not that you have not moved, but that the map has changed.
The underlying language of capital operation is changing: from "compliant arbitrage" to "compliant creation"; from "valuation premium" to "strategic synergy"; from "cross-border financing" to "cross-border governance".
Are you ready to speak a new language?
Goheal believes that in this change, the most valuable resource is not capital itself, but the "liquidity" of capital cognition. Whoever can identify trends faster can seize the initiative; whoever can understand the evolution of rules can redefine the game.
Our recent survey data shows that among the more than 100 A-share listed companies that have completed changes in control in the past two years, more than 60% of the new controlling shareholders have "overseas governance" experience, but only less than 30% of them have successfully integrated. What is the reason? Cognitive dislocation.
Cognitive dislocation is more deadly than geopolitical division.
This is exactly what Goheal has been advocating: capital is not just a "transaction", but also a tool for "organizational evolution". Especially under geopolitical friction, whoever can understand the boundaries of rules, control the strategic direction, and coordinate cross-border paths will be the real winner in this complex game.
Goheal Group
In the end, we would like to leave a question for every investor and entrepreneur standing at a strategic crossroads:
In the context of the current Sino-US economic friction, does your company have the ability to "reconstruct the path"? Do you choose to continue to stick to the old route, or boldly open up new channels? Do you see "decoupling" or the "new hooking" opportunity hidden in it?
Welcome to share your views and ideas in the comment area. Goheal is willing to explore the countercurrent in the capital cold wave with you. After all, the more chaotic the world is, the more expensive cognition is.
[About Goheal] Goheal is a leading investment holding company focusing on global mergers and acquisitions. It has deep roots in the three core business areas of acquisition of controlling rights of listed companies, mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and capital operations of listed companies. With its profound professional strength and rich experience, it provides companies with full life cycle services from mergers and acquisitions to restructuring and capital operations, aiming to maximize corporate value and achieve long-term benefit growth.
